CPEC and The Route Dilemma;
By: Shiraz Ali Khan
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor was planned between the mid 2000's as route between the Gawader and Kasghar a remote province in China. The first manifestation was and 84 slide presentation in 2006 presented by Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission to the then leadership of Pakistan. The slide 29 of the presentation shows the first map of the route and the logo of the Pakistan planning commission and National Highways Authority (NHA) which is now being referred to as the central route of the corridor.
The $46 billion project now has three proposed routes and with certain government ambiguities all three will be developed with time. The three routes were namely the Central Route as proposed in the 2006 by the Federal Government Planning Commission.
Central Route: Gawader-turbat-panjgur-khuzdar-Ratodero-Kashmore-Rajanpur-D.G khan-D.I khan-Bannu-Kohat-Peshawer-Hassan AbdalAnd onwards.
Eastern Route: Gawader-Turbat-Panjgur-khuzdar-Ratodero-Kashmore-Rajanpur-D.G khan-Multan-Faislabad-PindiBhati-Rawalpindi-Hassan Abdal and onwards
Western Route: Gawader-Turbat-Panjgur-Khuzdar-Kalat-Quetta-Zohb-D.I khan-Bannu-Kohat-Peshawer-Hassan Abdal and onwards
With the publication of the Federal Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) 2014-2015 adopted in june2014 showing a Five communication Division Schemes at a cost of $49 billion Serial No.(100-104) which shows the following point:
. Karachi-Lahore Motorway
.Lahore Abdul Hakeem khanewal section
. Multan Sukkur section
. Sukkur Hyderabad Section
. Railkot-Hawalia Section
. Railkot-Hawali-Hyderabad Section
It also included the following ongoing schemes as well
. Gawader-Turbat-Hushab Section
. Hoshab-Nag-Besima-Surab Section
. Kalat-Quetta-chaman Section
Its important to note that the Government has already arrange external Finance for Zohb-Dera Ismael khan Section.
With the publication of the above mention plan the Nationalist parties which in many areas of Baluchistan and KPK has suffered a great deal of setbacks came back into the national political scenes with a bang they accused the Federal Government of Changing the pre-planned route (central route) and opting for the Eastern route which passed through Mostly Punjab and even for that matter central Punjab which is already a developed area. The government action to favor the Eastern route was immensely criticized by a no. of political parties namely ANP under Asfand Yar Wali Khan, AWP under Fanoos Gujjar, PPP under Zardari, PTI under Imran khan. The immense criticism and the seemingly political instability arising from it would send traumatizing signal to the Chinese government.
The Muslim League N government provided many explanations to effect but none of these explanations carried any reasonable ground and factual authority the Government stance can be deduced from the following explanations
. In the government first stance on the issue it accused all the parties of portraying a wrong image of the government and misleading the general public as the government claimed that there is no change in the corridor route what so ever. But the Inclusion of the projects of corridor in the 2014-15 PSDP proves otherwise
. In the mid of 2015 Government Acknowledged all the three routes and claimed that all the routes will be developed but as china has no interest in the internal politics of the government and no favoritism of any political party so it will not provide funds for all three routes so this explanation carried no factual ground as the government has no personal financial account to provide for the development of all three
. One view of the situation is that the three routes will be developed in stages but no explanation as to what route would be developed first and no time frame as to when the other routes will be established shows the government is in a state of vagueness
The government claimed that it would be cost efficient and time efficient to lay the corridor on the route which is already developed and carries a network of fair quality of roads. The nationalist parties objected to it by saying that opening up new horizons of economic prosperity in areas already much more developed on than the rest of the country will give rise to further economic inequality and some even went as far as saying that this could become the reason for a new Bangladesh.
The government stance can be concluded that the government despite denying the facts the route has been change to pass through central Punjab and the claiming that there are more than one routes the government priorities seems to have changed.
Even by comparing the three routes On the basic precepts of the new road construction yields the Western route as most efficient.
As determining the distance we have to see if the terrain through which it passes is in the long term beneficent to bringing economic equality and prosperity to the country as whole also the western route is most likely to be the shortest of all the three routes
For determining the cost of the of the road the following basic features are considered
1. Oppertunity cost : Referring to the terrain and Agricultural areas
2. Dislocation cost: Referring to the relocation of people and infrastructure
3. Nature of Terrain: Referring to the mountain passed and construction of river bridges
4. Pre existence road: Referring to the roads already existing
5. Enivrionmental consideration: Referring to the national parks residing on the route
6.Military consideration: Referring to the military bases that might need to be relocated
7. Security conditions: Referring to the security conditions of the area through which the road is to pass
Considering all the above variants the eastern route is the most illogical of all the three as it passes through the national park at Margalla hills to which the government is considering an underpass which will be quite expensive also a major bridge would need to be constructed on all the route over Indus river and also to this effect the eastern route will need small bridges to be constructed on the canal passes in its way.
Another factor to judge the three routes is the Comparative Opportunity Cost presented in the form of following three variants
. Population Density
. Total Area Under cultivation
. Total Production Of Four Major Corps (Wheat, Rice, Sugarcane and cotton)
The above variants in the form of statistics is as under
Easter route : Population density : 264
Area under cultivation in acers : 10322
Production of major corps in tons :30928
Western route: Population density : 98
Area under cultivation in acers : 2933
Production of major corps in tons : 7430
Central route: Population density : 156
Area under cultivation in acers : 5829
Production of major corps in tons : 13754
Analyzing all the above statistics and data one can easily conclude that the Western Route is the most efficient and most logical answer. But the fact that it only passed through two provinces yields that it will also causes certain insecurity to the national integrity of the country .
But as political and logical actions yields to the most understandable solution the All Parties Conference on May 28th 2015 decided a second western route which will prove to be most effective and most cost efficient
Western Route 2: Population Density: 76
Production of major corps: 1485
Area under cultivation: 1838 acres
Western route 2 passed through some of the country’s most backward areas and can prove to be a national highway toward national integrity and prosperity traversing through all the provinces. The APC decision should be followed strictly and effectively to diminish the economic inequality and dwarfing the distance between the people of the country.
It’s now the job of the government to make most of the opportunity at hand with the international challenges at hand it could prove to be a Coup de Grace to eliminate the national challenges. It is up to the government to go any way they pleases as this kindle of fire could be used to lit a comforting fire to keep warm in this cold situation or it can burn the house down if greedily used to favor some instead of all.
Researcher Pakistan
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